What If The Sadrists Aren't United In Opposing An Extended U.S. Presence?

Then the Iraqis will probably request one. The Post:

Mayson al-Damaluji, the spokeswoman for Iraqiya, said even some Sadrists who attended Talabani’s meeting expressed concern about Iraq’s long-term security. “We have national interests like the water sources and the oil fields, and we must ask ourselves: Are we able to protect it?” Damaluji said. “We made that question [Monday] to the prime minister and are waiting for his answer.”

Maliki's major obstacle is the Sadrists, who threaten to re-JAM if Maliki requests an extension. But if they're not putting up a united front, then Maliki's "How Do I Avoid Getting Killed" calculus tilts from "JAM Might Kill Me" to "The U.S. Can Backstop My Survival." Then the big question is: how does Obama say no? He clearly doesn't want to say yes. He wants to be able to tell the country next year that he ended the Iraq war, with no asterisk. I suppose people care so little about Iraq now that if it still hosts a couple thousand troops it's not much of an impediment, politically. (The right sure isn't going to attack him for that, but it might point it out to depress the liberal base.) Telling Iraq it's time to cut the cord would be exceptionally out of character for his administration.

Comments

[mikey]

“We have national interests like the water sources and the oil fields, and we must ask ourselves: Are we able to protect it?”

Protect them from WHAT, fer gawdsake? Internal threats, sabotage and theft, they can very likely be about as effective as they could with a few thousand US troops in country, that is, something less than 100% but probably good enough. External threats would be what, exactly? Iran? Saudi? Is there some concern that Kuwait might invade?

Let's face it - Maliki wants the US troops there because they're the best militia he could ever hope to have keeping him alive and in power. But Iraqi internal politics should not be our concern any further, and if our intention is to prop up one political faction, then we ought to at least be honest about that...

[fuster]

mikey, consider the oil fields in the area of Kirkuk. the destination of the revenue from those fields and the ability to anybody derive much revenue from them if the struggle there intensifies is in question.

[fuster]

sorry, that should have read "of anybody to derive"

[Monster Beats]

so cool ,your blog so cool